Most Cayman Islands residents think August and September present the greatest risk when it comes to hurricanes.
Indeed,
statistically speaking in the Atlantic basin, August and September do
represent the peak of hurricane season. Two notable major hurricanes -
Gilbert in 1988 and Ivan in 2004 - impacted the Cayman Islands during
the second week of September, within a day or so of the statistical
apex of hurricane season.
Both of those hurricanes
were of the so-called Cape Verde type, meaning they started as tropical
waves coming off the coast of western Africa and formed into tropical
cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean. Cape Verde hurricanes can be fierce,
but even if they stay on a westerly track instead of curving northward,
they offer one vital element that helps reduce their danger to the
Cayman Islands: time
It generally takes a week or
more for even the fastest Cape Verde system to make its way across the
Atlantic Ocean, and with the advent of weather satellites and the
Internet, all residents of the Cayman Islands have plenty of time to
prepare.
Historically, most hurricanes or tropical
storms that have affected the Cayman Islands during the months of
August or September have been the Cape Verde type.
However,
hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November, and throughout
history, hurricanes have actually formed every month of the year in the
Atlantic basin.
When it comes to the Cayman Islands,
people here need to be prepared, especially in the early and late
hurricane season, says Cayman’s Senior Manager Meteorological Services
Fred Sambula.
"Statistics show that the genesis of
hurricanes in the early part of the season are usually in the Gulf of
Mexico or the western Caribbean," he said. "In the mid-part of the
season, there is a shift to the long-track systems that come off the
coast of Africa. At the end of the season, hurricanes tend to have
their genesis in the southwest Caribbean."
Mr.
Sambula stressed that just because the statistics show trends of where
hurricanes form during certain times of the year, it doesn’t mean a
hurricane couldn’t pop up somewhere else. But he said it does mean
Cayman residents should have all hurricane preparations completed by
the beginning of hurricane season.
"For the Cayman
Islands, the early part of the season and the late part of the season
are the two times that are most dangerous in terms that they can form
closest to us, meaning the lead time is diminished," he said. "With
Cape Verde storms, you have a lot more time to prepare, so the risk is
somewhat diminished."
Even with advances in tropical
cyclone predictability and tracking, hurricanes can – and have – formed
rather suddenly in the western Caribbean, where the sea surface
temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical cyclone most months
of the year.
Last year’s Hurricane Paloma caught
some Cayman residents by surprise when it brushed Grand Cayman and
slammed Cayman Brac and Little Cayman on 8 November. Even though Paloma
began as a tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa, it didn’t
actually form into an area of low pressure until it was near the coast
of Nicaragua. Paloma was a classic late-season, southwest Caribbean
hurricane.
Other notable hurricanes that formed in
the southwest Caribbean include Hurricane Wilma in 2005, which became
the most intense hurricane every recorded in the Atlantic Basin. Back
in 1961, Hurricane Hattie formed in the southwest Caribbean and was
heading directly for Grand Cayman before it abruptly turned left and
hit Belize as a Category 4 storm, killing 265 people.
The
warm sea surface temperatures in the open waters of the southwest
Caribbean have allowed many storms to develop into major hurricanes.
These conditions can also cause a hurricane to intensify rapidly. Wilma
went from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane packing 175 mph winds
in less than 12 hours.
"Sometimes there has to be a
higher degree of rapidity in response to a hurricane threat," said Mr.
Sambula. "This is why preparation is important during the entire
hurricane season. We have to be able to take the most effective action
for protection for life and property in the shortest possible time."
Mr. Sambula said many people and businesses were not prepared fast
enough for Hurricane Paloma last year.
"There were still people out on the roads when conditions were bad and when they really should have been at home."