A strong tropical wave, which has been dubbed Invest 93L, is headed Grand Cayman’s way, but chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone of significant strength before it gets here appear slim.

After upgrading thechances of the system developing into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours to 40 per cent on Monday evening, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reduced that chance to 20 per cent on Tuesday afternoon, after the tropical wave became less organised.

However, much of the computer weather model guidance forecasts the weather system to pass close to Grand Cayman on Thursday or Friday, bringing showers and thunderstorms at the very least.

The Hurricane Center noted that environmental conditions were expected to become more conducive for slow development of the system as it moved west-northwest at about 10 mph.

Should the wave form into Tropical Depression 1 and then have its sustained wind speeds reach 39 miles per hour, the system would become Tropical Storm Alex.

As of Tuesday afternoon, however, there was not much wind to speak of associated with the tropical wave.

Cayman’s National Weather Service forecast cloudiness with showers and thundershowers Wednesday through Friday, with clearing on Saturday.

Most of the model guidance showed the system eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico and intensifying to a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane.

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