There are at least three striking features in the population statistics of Cayman Islands:
- The rapid growth rate since around 1970 with about 4 percent average annual growth. With a growth rate of 4 percent the population will double in 18 years
- The population composition by age. The median age is 36 years.
- The high percentage of persons with Non-Caymanian status in the population, about 40 per cent.
Population growth rate
There are only four components of change in the total population; births (B), deaths (D), immigration (I) and emigration (E):
Pn = P0 + (B-D) + (I-E)
Pn is the population at the end of the period and P0 is the population at the beginning of the period. B-D is called natural growth. Normally it is natural increase, but natural decrease can occur, of course. I-E is called net migration.
Source: Population census 1989, 1999 and LFS 2007
The annual growth rate is calculated from the formula for geometric growth:
With a population annual growth at 4.4 per cent, the population in Cayman Islands will double in 16 years. A growth rate above 4 per cent is very unusual. If the growth rate is 3 per cent the population will double in 23 years. Also a growth rate of 3 per cent must be regarded as high.
The rapid growth of the population in Cayman Islands from around 1970 until now is mainly due to a high number of net migration from Non-Caymanians. The Caymanians mainly contributed to the natural growth.
Natural growth is at present about 500 per year (700 births and 200 deaths) in the Cayman Islands. Then a net migration of about 1,800 per year is needed in the coming years to obtain a growth rate of 4.4 per cent. In the long run a population growth rate over 4 per cent is not probable. It would result in an unreasonable large population in a rather short term.
A more realistic judgment of the future population development is that the population growth follows a logistic curve. This means that you first have a period of low growth rate, then a period of high growth rate followed by a new period of low population growth but now on a higher level. This is sometimes called the “demographic transition” and is probably most applicable to countries where the natural growth is much more important than net migration for population growth, which is not the case in the Cayman Islands.
The problem in Cayman Islands is the assumption on when the exponential growth will slow down. As this will depend more on the decline in net migration and not so much on changes in the natural growth it is very difficult to make “realistic” assumptions. Forecasting natural growth is easier than forecasting net immigration. Fertility and mortality do not normally change rapidly but net migration can change quickly due to e.g. political decisions.
There are signs that the rapid population growth in the Cayman Islands is declining. The population count in the coming 2010 Population Census will be very important. There is currently no official population projection in the Cayman Islands mainly due to small resources at ESO and lack of data. ESO is trying to carry out some rough future population estimates based on incomplete data. However, it will be possible to do “proper’ population projections based on the 2010 census results.
Household size
Average number of persons per household 1960 – 2007:
Source: Population censuses 1960 -1999 and LFS 2006 and 2007
The household size has decreased considerably since 1960. More than 75 percent of the households in the Cayman Islands now have one – three household members. About 25 percent of the households are one-person households.
Population composition by age
The dependency ratio in Cayman Islands is very low compared to most other countries. Around year 2000 this was in Bermuda around 40 percent in Bermuda and about 67 percent in Jamaica. The average in CARICOM countries was about 60 per cent. A low dependency rate is regarded to be favorable to economic development. The dependency ratio can be interpreted as the ratio of persons that are not normally economic active to the population of working age/productive ages. A high dependency ratio implies that there are fewer persons in the productive ages.
As can be seen from the table above the percentage of young (less than 15 years of age) persons has decreased significantly and has been more than halved from 1960 to 2007. At the same time the percentage of people between 15 and 64 has increased substantially. The dependency ratio is about 30 per cent in 2007 compared to about 34 per cent in 1999. The median age was 33 years in 1999. The median age has since 1999 increased to 36 years in 2007 according to LFS 2007.
Sex distribution
Source: Population census 1999
As can be seen from the table above the sex distribution in Cayman Islands was rather even in 1999 and it still is. Recent Labour Force Surveys (LFS) estimate about 50 percent women and 50 percent men in Cayman Islands. As in almost all other countries there are more women than men in the oldest age groups.
Note that the number in each five year group by sex is small and thus these are uncertain estimates. However, the big picture with a very high dominance of persons in the ages 30-49 years are correct. As pointed out before, the median age is 36 years. The Cayman Islands have a middle-aged population.
Status
The percentage of Caymanians has decreased steadily. In 1970, the proportion of Caymanians was 85 percent; in 1979 81 percent; and in 1989 67 percent. In 1999, the proportion was as low as 53 percent. Around 2003, there was an increase due to grants of Caymanian status by the Cabinet and the proportion of persons with Caymanian status is now about 60 percent.
More information can be found on the ESO website, www.eso.ky.
