Cayman WeatherWatch :: Formation Probability

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Today's Date: 08 September 2010

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Formation Probability

For guidance purposes only. Official NOAA TC forecasts available at www.nhc.noaa.gov

24-Hour Water Vapor Loop



	Tropical Depression / Tropical Storm	Hurricane

TC FORMATION AREAS OF INTEREST:: Identifies regions of relatively-enhanced summation TC formation probability (see below). To dinstinguish between TC formation and non-formation cases, uses nearby TC formation (see below). Hence, provides a broad-scale "first guess" at areas with the potential for TC formation. The threshold summation probability values that define each area of interest category was chosen so that 100%/75%/25%/5% of dependent sample set cases meet or exceed the threshold values. Basins were treated independently, so corresponding dependent sample set occurrence frequencies may vary by basin.

TC Formation Area of Intestest Category	Occurrence Frequency (ATLC / EPAC / WPAC)			Dependent Cases Included
Possible (Blue)	4%	7%	5%	75%
Fair (Orange)	10%	26%	12%	25%
Good (Red)	20%	46%	18%	5%

Nearby TC Formation: Describes TC formation that occurs within 20° of a given point. This is less stringent than the 5° criterion used by the main TC Formation Probability product.
Summation TC Formation Probability: The sum of the TC formation probabilities at all grid points within a 20° lat by 20° lon subregion centered on that point.
Occurrence Frequency: For all points exceeding a given summation probabilty threshold, the percent of those cases that resulted in a "nearby" TC formation (as defined above).

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Current Conditions in Cayman

84 F
29 C

Sky: Sun and Clouds
Relative humidity: 83%
Wind direction: NNE
Wind speed: 7km/h
Visability: 16km
Pressure: 1012mb

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**For guidance purposes only. Official NOAA TC forecasts available at www.nhc.noaa.gov**

For guidance purposes only. Official NOAA TC forecasts available at www.nhc.noaa.gov